The Future of Mortgage Rates

By Scott McNeil

  • 5 April 2024

UK mortgage rates are on the decline amidst a changing economic landscape, and if you’re wondering why mortgage rates falling UK is happening, you’re in the right place. Recent measures by the Bank of England, alongside improving inflation rates and competitive lending markets, are enabling this fall. Our article highlights the forces at play and prepares you for their potential effects on your mortgage expenses and the housing market outlook.

Key Takeaways

  • The mortgage rates in the UK have fluctuated significantly, peaking in summer 2023 and seeing a decrease into 2024 due to competition among lenders and economic factors like inflation and global fiscal policies.
  • Home-buyers and property investors can navigate the mortgage market by comparing fixed-rate mortgages, considering the advantages of mortgage brokers versus direct lending.
  • Decreasing mortgage rates affect the housing market at large, improving affordability and increasing housing demand, which could lead to higher house prices and a wider variety of mortgage products.

The Current Climate of Mortgage Rates in the UK

Illustration of a graph showing fluctuating mortgage rates in the UK

Imagine riding a roller coaster. The climb, the peak, and then the thrilling drop. That’s how mortgage rates have behaved in the UK recently. During the summer of 2023, mortgage rates soared, with average mortgage rates reaching a peak of 6.86% for an average two-year fixed rate in July. This increase had a significant impact on the market. As thrilling as it may sound, this sharp increase caused a stir among homeowners and potential buyers who were closely monitoring the latest uk mortgage rates.

But just like a roller coaster ride, what went up had to come down. The months that followed saw a reduction in rates, with some fixed rates decreasing by nearly one percentage point. As we entered 2024, fierce competition among lenders further drove down these rates, making the ride more intriguing as interest rates fall.

Understanding the Bank of England’s Role

But who controls this roller coaster ride? The answer is the Bank of England. This central bank is like the operator, controlling the speed and direction of the ride by setting the country’s base interest rate. Any move they make directly influences the rates set by lenders.

So, when the Bank of England held the base interest rate at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting in March 2023, it affected projections for future mortgage rates.

The Influence of Inflation on Mortgage Rates

Inflation also plays a significant role in this ride. Think of inflation as the weather conditions on the day of your roller coaster ride. During a recession, central banks lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, just like a sunny day would attract more visitors to the amusement park. The lower interest rates, in turn, lead to decreased mortgage rates, influencing the housing market.

It’s like a sunny day leading to more people riding the roller coaster, making the ride more thrilling.

Global Economic Factors at Play

Now, imagine if this roller coaster ride was influenced by rides in other amusement parks across the world. This is exactly how the mortgage market works. Decisions made by central banks in other countries, like the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions or changes in fiscal policies, can impact UK mortgage rates.

For instance, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to counteract inflation, it often leads to higher costs of borrowing money globally, potentially causing UK lenders to increase their mortgage rates. But on the flip side, global economic slowdowns can lead central banks to lower interest rates to stimulate spending and borrowing, thereby influencing mortgage rates to fall.

Predictions for Mortgage Rates in the Near Future

Illustration of a crystal ball with a downward trend, symbolizing predictions of decreasing mortgage rates

Just as roller coaster enthusiasts look forward to the new rides and thrill levels in the upcoming season, homeowners and potential investors are eager to know the future of mortgage rates. And the predictions are quite interesting. It seems the roller coaster ride of mortgage rates is far from over. With easing inflation and possible central bank movements, we are likely to see decreases in mortgage rates.

Many investors now only seek developments with completion dates into 2025 and beyond, where upon completion mortgage rates are predicted to be much more favorable and competitive. Another benefit of investing in an off-plan developments would but the capital appreciation during the build period, with only small deposits required to purchase. If you would like to explore off-plan investment opportunities or simply find out more information on this then reach out to us today.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will mortgage rates drop by 2025 UK?

It is expected that the Bank of England base rate will fall to around 4.25% by 2026, from the current 5.25%. Therefore, mortgage rates are expected to continue on the decline.

How do the Bank of England’s decisions impact mortgage rates?

The Bank of England’s decisions directly impact mortgage rates, as they set the country’s base interest rate which influences the rates set by lenders.

How does inflation influence mortgage rates?

Inflation can influence mortgage rates by leading central banks to lower interest rates during a recession, which in turn can cause a decrease in mortgage rates.

What are the benefits of fixed-rate mortgages?

Fixed-rate mortgages offer payment stability and consistent interest rates throughout the loan period, helping homeowners and property investors budget, protecting them from sudden increases in monthly payments if interest rates climb.